Monday, May 09, 2005

Disappointing Sales In Dallas, "Price Adjustments"

The Dallas News has more information that shows the Dallas area is having problems. "North Texas real estate agents sold 6,814 pre-owned single-family homes in April; a decline of 7 percent from a year ago."

This blog got a lot of pointed questions recently when it was suggested they were building too many homes in big 'D'. "And there are more homes to sell. In April there were more than 43,000 houses on the market in North Texas, an increase of 4 percent from a year ago. At current sales rates, that amounts to more than a 7-month supply of homes."

Realtor Jennie Ling said, "There are some price adjustments being made. There are a lot of signs that say New Price."


At 3:26 PM, Blogger John Law said...

is the total of loans up or down y-o-y?

At 3:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think it says.

The spring season's traditionally hot housing market is getting off to a slow start.

North Texas real estate agents sold 6,814 pre-owned single-family homes in April — a decline of 7 percent from a year ago.

With last month's dip, home sales are up a scant 1 percent for the first four months of 2005, the North Texas Real Estate Information System reported Monday.

Real estate agents say business in some areas has been strong, but overall activity hasn't been up to seasonal expectations.

"It doesn't seem to be quite as robust as during the last two spring markets," said Barry Hoffer with Prudential Texas Properties. "There is still a high level of activity, but it's not at the pace we have seen.

"Of course, there are still some hotter pockets," he said.

For instance, sales in East Dallas rose by 24 percent last month over those from a year ago. And preowned home sales were up 20 percent in Westlake.

With mortgage rates recently retreating a bit, agents are hopeful consumers will head out looking for homes.

"I see the market picking up," said Jennie Ling with Virginia Cook Realtors. "We are coming into the season when more houses are coming on the market and selling."

And there are more homes to sell. In April there were more than 43,000 houses on the market in North Texas - an increase of 4 percent from a year ago. At current sales rates, that amounts to more than a 7-month supply of homes.

Prices edged up in April. The median price of homes sold was $145,000, an increase of 5 percent.

"In some areas, prices are up, and in some areas they are flat," Ms. Ling said. "There are some price adjustments being made.

"There are a lot of signs that say New Price."

At 6:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there a statistic or measurement, or whatever it would be called, for the percentage of homes that is sold by flippers? I may be thinking wrongly, but it seems to me that pure-investor purchases and sales affect the usefulness of market reports, perhaps in terms of volume and direction. For example, if two towns, A and B, had equal numbers of homes, and in town A 25% of those homes were owned by flippers (aka hair-trigger sellers), would not that affect the probable outcome during a change in market conditions? If yes, it would be interesting if someone could figure out how to address that and sort of "factor it out." Chip

At 3:11 AM, Anonymous katie said...

I think most of us here would say that Chip ( 6:38 PM, Anonymous) is thinking rightly, that yes, the amount of homes purchased by speculators does indeed make a difference in the bubble assessment.

Like Chip, I wonder how much difference too. We know that the percentage of speculators (but they call them investors) purchasing homes has gone up a lot, some say double what is the historical norm. And that's not even counting the swarms of first-time buyers on extreme leverage who normally would not have done except for the lure of big resale profits. So it will somewhat depend on your definition of speculator.

At 3:58 AM, Anonymous Architect of Mirth said...

When this bubble bursts, I would hate to be Carlton Sheets- he will go down as the Ponzi of our era.

I was on the floor of the NYSE on the day the Nasdaq hit 5000- The traders just shook their heads in disbelief. This bubble will be just as humorous.

We were worried if we would have a "V" shaped recession or a "U" shaped recession in '03- I think the next one will be a "L" shaped recession.

China is our role model for the future- Figurehead governments taking care of their own, sacrificing one to the mobs once in a while while allowing bubbles to rise and fall as it suits their needs. If you don't believe me, just watch how all hell breaks loose when the Float happens! FICO800 will get you a 10% mortgage.

Economists called it the Singapore Model- "benevolent" dictatorship (defined as leaving a few crumbs) will be the wave of the future as the Western democracies realize that they can continue to vote themselves (oops- Greenspan wasn't elected) more than they produce. Democracy without discipline = future dictatorship or slavery. Our debt could ensure the latter.

To all my friends at the NAR- congratulations. You have maintained a monopoly by means that would make Don Corleone proud, and are doing more damage to the US economy than you will ever realize.

Some earlier threads had it right- this bubble is the ultimate revenge of the Baby Boom.

At 5:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Ben, this might amuse you:

Bubble in housing bubble predictions

At 6:41 AM, Blogger deb said...

Anon 5:54,

Poor Milwaukee, the spec buyers are propbably on their way now after reading that piece.

At 7:28 AM, Anonymous RentBoy said...

All basically the fallout from the UK's now rapidly deflating bubbble:

At 8:21 AM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

Anybody think we are in some sort of rolling stagflationary depression and what is hot today will be ice cold in a couple of years and vice versa for the currently depressed areas? Amazing how so many housing markets in middle America are so weak along with many basic industries in this country while housing in the coastal bubble markets is bubbily beyond belief. Right now the same house they can't give away for $120k in Dallas goes for $400k in Vegas or much of Florida and $700k in LA. Stunning that there is almost nothing even for sale in many of these hot markets these days. Speculators mske up much of the new home and high end condo markets no doubt but have a minimal impact in stable neighbornhoods of 40-50 yar old ranch homes close to the major cities. Perhaps a rebirth in manufacturing, tech and life sciences along with a housing recovery in flyover country will offset the coming collapse in our coastal housing and contraction of consumer spending in those areas...


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