Sunday, May 08, 2005

Flashback: UCLA Anderson Forecast

The following was originally posted on March 15, 2005.

The Anderson School of Management at UCLA has earned a reputation for making major calls on the economies of California and the nation. "(It) was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California, and the strength of the state’s rebound since 1993. Most recently, the Forecast is credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001."

The report has a housing related prediction for the Golden State; "a weak housing market" that will drag the economy down. Noting that the current expansion is getting aged in historic terms the forecast "concludes with the assertion that a recession is in the future; he just doesn't know when yet. He doesn't see it in 2005, but believes it could happen in 2006."


At 6:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Slightly off topic, but because most people base their RE purchases on whether it is located in a good school district...

Newsweek has an article in which they ranked the top 1000 public high schools in the US. California has only 7 schools in the top 100, and none in the top 20, despite being the most populous state in the nation.

I'm telling you folks, once the RE bubble bursts here, this place is headed downward in a big way.

At 7:24 AM, Blogger SoldAtThePeak said...

I remember that day well. That was my "Aha" day (or alternatively, my "Oh crap, we're in trouble" day). That report was semi-widely publicized and I caught it on one of the more mainstream news sites. That led me to the universe of bubble blogs, where I found out how bad it truly was.

That night, I went home and laid out the scenario for my wife. She was reluctant at first but I kept giving evidence that I had discovered that day and she finally agreed to sell our house and rent (we were planning a move anyway). Now she's entirely on board and we're finishing up our last projects in the house before we sell (it's taken far longer than I hoped!)

We'll take our cash and sit out the downturn and buy something we like instead of settling for a dump.

At 12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Slightly off topic on this posting.

Southern California the housing bubble is nigh...

I was in a quick serve restaurant in Huntington Beach, CA and looked at the OC Metro (throwaway weekly rag with a hint of lifestyles of the rich and famous) and saw an ad for the following website.

It looks to be a real estate bull site for helping homeowners with equity in So Cal invest in more affordable markets.

This is going to end badly.

At 1:28 AM, Anonymous katie said...

OC Investor was launched in March by Bo Apostolache, a 28-year old mortgage banker who started investing in Orange County real estate in 1999. Which would mean his experience goes all the way back to... the beginning of the RE bubble.

The first signs that he was an investing genius began to show when he broke even on a property after there was an accident which caused $20,000 in damage for which he didn't have insurance. Rapid appreciation had made up his loss. Great story:

Tycoon in the making


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