Thursday, May 12, 2005

Appraisers In Jacksonville Forecasting Increases

This CBS 47 site tells us the local appraisers are in the prediction business. "Real estate prices seem to be skyrocketing out of control."

"As an example for how fast property values are climbing, appraisers say a house which was just purchased for around $220 thousand dollars could easily sell for $270 thousand in about a year."

Of course, these days everyone is an expert. "Craig Pepin-Donat has purchased two homes in Jacksonville to rent and predicts the city’s real estate bubble will only blow up even bigger. 'I don't foresee too soon that they're just going to burst and the market is going to take a dump. I don't see it happening in the next 3 to 5 years.'"

6 Comments:

At 9:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Craig Pepin-Donat

Somebody write this guy name down. He will be a great lead on some really cheap for sell by owner property in a couple of years.

 
At 9:28 AM, Anonymous hootie said...

I'm sure most stockholders in 1999-2000 didn't "foresee" a 50-80% "dump" either. Otherwise they wouldn't have been buying stocks.

The best "tell" to me is smart money selling. You say smart money selling stocks---either outright selling or monetizing via IPO---from 1998-2000. Who were they selling to? The retail trade and momo's.

Today, with real estate, you are seeing the big private commercial RE players selling hand over fist? Who are they selling to? The retail trade, the momo's (speculators) and the REITs (essentially the public via 401k $$).

Same scenario.

 
At 9:43 AM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

hootie,
The smart money is selling. From Silicon Valley to the big corporate towers in NY. Not to mention the homebuilder/mortgage insider stock sales. Thanks for the comment.

 
At 10:23 AM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

I don't think most long term conservative RE investors are selling. To me most appear happy to sit on their massive paper gains and miniscule cash flows rather than do something else with the money or pay capital gains taxes. All hate the stock market, low interest CD's or owning much cheaper flyover country real estate far from the current 1-2% cap rate environment where they live.

 
At 10:41 AM, Anonymous hootie said...

---don't think most long term conservative RE investors are selling---

Don't know where you live, but here in SF Bay Area the long-time conservative commercial RE folks are selling big-time. The biggest player in Silicon Valley is dumping entire portfolio, represents 25% of market. The biggest player in SF---Shorenstein---is dumping. And the REITs are grabbing with both hands at all-time high prices and all-time poorest fundamentals in terms of rent vs value, vacancy rates, etc.

Avg Joe homeowner ain't selling cause he can't afford to buy again. So residential is in low supply. But commercial/multifam is another story. That's where the smart money is...and they're selling.

 
At 12:12 PM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

I was refering more to local smaller investors who might have some single family rentals, small apartment buildings or a strip shopping center. I wonder if the Shorenstein's of the world and new age coastal based speculators are going to put their winnings into flyover country. Remember the last meltdown during the S&L fiasco much of the so called smart money was wiped out including Trump. Odds are few will just sit by in cash and wait this out.

 

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