Saturday, April 09, 2005

"Sooner Or Later, It Is Going To End" In Arizona

Could the long run-up in Arizona home prices be coming to an end? This AZCentral.com story looks at what has to be the biggest question in the Phoenix area this weekend.

"The average number of days a southeast Valley home was on the market jumped from six days in January to 35 in February, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service."

Prices are up, sales are up, nothing unusual there. "You get a little carried away by the price of the home, and the overpriced stuff stays on the market. There are indications (that is happening), but nothing in evidence yet," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University.

Mr. Butler ponders what must be a worry to many a homeowner these days. "He said people seem to be getting more nervous and wondering if or when the market will crash. 'Things are so good in the minds of a lot of people and they all know that sooner or later it is going to end, and they don't know when it's going to end..They don't want to be hung up to dry.'"

11 Comments:

At 10:09 AM, Blogger John Law said...

it's funny, it feels like 99 when a lot of stocks were slowing down but tech stocks kept going and going.

what's the picture right now?
rising inventories
houses taking longer to be sold
correct?

anways, dr mar faber has some good april commentary that you guys will want to look at. he talks about finance stocks and the mortgage/housing stocks.

www.gloomboomdoom.com

 
At 1:11 PM, Anonymous Mike Mo said...

Hello All, Been lurking here for about two weeks. I love the site because the people here are mature and I don't see the usual petty name calling and insults that are so common with the bubble debate.
I'd like to share some anecdotal evidence from a good friend of mine. He is a financial advisor for a big firm based in Orlando. He is not looking to buy or sell RE at this time (he owns two homes that were purchased years ago), so he has no agenda on either side. So recently we were exchanging emails about the bubble and I asked him if he believes one exists, and he had this to say,
"I completely believe. Quick story...Big developer in Orlando is a friend, he had a residential/ office tower about 30 stories in the works and he pulled the plug because construction costs have gotten so high. Lunch today a friend who runs two banks here in town told me they are tightening up on credit quality.

That is all it takes, the Fed slowing things with higher rates, higher costs associated with construction and banks getting tougher on credit.

Same attitudes that a lot of people had in 1999 with equities are prevailing today...except instead of IPO's and tech you have flipping condos and residential real estate."

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger John Law said...

preconstruction almost seems like the new IPOs.

 
At 2:51 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

John,
It does have a strange feeling. And the media have jumped all over it; they sense something too.

Mike Mo,
Thanks for commenting. The posters are a pretty good bunch...Ben

 
At 2:58 PM, Blogger mspenelope said...

4/9/05
Mike...that is sooooo scary to hear.
If the banks tighten up on credit....who are all these speculators going to sell their brand new homes to?
Were the two banks big ones....
BOA possibly?

 
At 3:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We need a site like this:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.html

Ben ?

 
At 3:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

People are cashing in on their houses:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/Homebuyingguide/P113075.asp

 
At 3:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There's no reason to have 50% equity in your house,"

YIKES !!!

 
At 3:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

New home sales drop:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050408/william_lyon_homes.html?.v=1

 
At 4:11 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

(We need a site like this)

What do you like that the site offers? I am working on several site concepts and would be very interested in what people are looking for. Thanks..Ben

 
At 9:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We could create our own topics for discussion and the topics don't scroll off the bottom. We could post links to articles and summarize them and save you some of the work.

 

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