The Housing Bubble: Home Builder Stock Price And Nasdaq 2000

Saturday, April 02, 2005

The Stock Market Jungle has a chart that overlays the home building index with the price pattern of the Nasdaq bubble.

At 11:46 AM, Anonymous said...: The first four years are a pretty close fit ... but how good a fit will it be in the next four?
At 12:02 PM, Anonymous said...: The first four years are a pretty close fit ... but how good a fit will it be in the next four?

Ummmm if I knew that I wouldn't be wasting my time on the internet... I'd be calling my broker and placing some 'shorts'...

But clearly from the chart and knowing the fundemental situation (housing market) one can see there is a fall coming... reminds me of a market saying "The fundementals are easy, it's the timing that's the bitch"

Or

"History doesn't repeat... it rhymes..."
At 1:30 PM, Anonymous said...: and the Nasdaq is still overvalued...

so that's a good 60-70 percent fall for housing?
At 1:41 PM, Anonymous said...: It's a 60-70% fall for the stock prices of homebuilders.

I'm not sure we can infer anything about home price declines from that.
At 3:21 PM, Ben Jones said...: Shorting the home builders would take a strong stomach. I think they will get cut in half, at least. Some areas, like Austin, TX haven't enjoyed much of the run. The fallout should be regional, but a national or global recession is a high probability, IMO.

The Housing Bubble