Saturday, May 21, 2005

Las Vegas Web Site Pulls Embarrassing SE

On May 15th, this post ran with the links to a Las Vegas search engine that listed 736 homes that had been reduced in prices in the last seven days. When viewed this evening, that had changed to 10. Obviously, the web site operator found out the public was using the search to guage how bad things are in LV, and pulled down most of the posts.

Well done, everybody. Now we just need an alternative way to track the meltdown in the desert this summer.

18 Comments:

At 7:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No suprise with that move.

At least the psychology seems to be turning.

RE has serious issues with asymmetric information and conflicts of interest.

Like you have found with Australia no bad news is reported.

 
At 8:07 PM, Blogger JLP said...

An excellent example of the power of bloggers.

Doesn't the real estate market have an eerie resemblance to the internet bubble? At least with real estate there's real assets involved.

JLP

AllThingsFinancial

 
At 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

what happens in Vegas STAYS in Vegas

 
At 8:49 PM, Blogger ajh said...

Anon 7:53,

You may not be getting Australian RE news in the US, but I can assure you the business pages of the papers here are full of it.

There isn't a lot of headline stuff because the first froth has blown off and asking prices are currently more or less static (but sales are slowing).

A lot of people are waiting to see if anyone big's in trouble. A couple of apartment developments have been pulled off the market, and we are starting to get articles about possible problems with debenture issues which have been marketed to retirees etc. with advertising that makes them LOOK like they are backed by occupied property, but are actually only backed by development sites.

Just this week there was news that a big developer called Multiplex had sold out of its share of a UK development. They've had some troubles over the last few months and their share price has halved, so some commentators are suggesting this might be driven by a need for cash. Multiplex and their bankers are denying this, but they would, wouldn't they?

FYI Ben; I mentioned on another post that some prices are still going up because of rising construction costs, and I mentioned a new terrace development in my own city that had gone up $20K. Well the advert in this weekend's paper had "1 left at $289,950", which is the ORIGINAL off the plan price. Wouldn't you feel great if you had bought last week at 310K?

 
At 9:36 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

ajh,
Thanks. If you come across links to AU stories, please email them to

thehousingbubble@gmail.com

That way, I will recieve it regardless of the time difference.

 
At 9:41 PM, Blogger ajh said...

Ben

Will do.

 
At 9:50 PM, Blogger John Law said...

have we seen with inventories rising the fact that supply is just not an issue?

 
At 10:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I suggest running a saved MLS search in your area every day and see how many entries come up.

I am running several searches in the SF Bay Area the number of listings are slowly going up.

 
At 11:57 PM, Anonymous JJ said...

I've been reading and enjoying this blog for about a month - thanks and best of luck to all the sane minds herein.

I want to add to this bit of Vegas "sleight of hand" (what did you expect) that CNN, the de facto news outlet for millions, seems to put too optimistic a spin on Greenies comments. At least for those shall we say illiterati who read the headlines, but not between the lines.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/20/news/economy/fed_housing.reut/index.htm

Luckily some other mass media outlets have taken things more seriouly, and clearly the momentum is gathering. I'm sure we all have our own understanding of matters :)

regards
JJ

 
At 12:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We should protest to CNN in the form of an online petition.

The media is "raping" the truth.

 
At 6:24 AM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

I don't know about Las Vegas cracking just yet. Was just there and very little inventory for sale or even for rent even though they are building like crazy. A theory is speculators are keeping many new completed homes dark in order to benefit from more appreciation and you get the bet price when it is still considered new and never live in.

 
At 7:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Next realtor.com will stop allowing you to do blanket searches of an entire area.

Through realtor.com I was able to see that there are 12,821 properties for sale in Las Vegas, with a population of 327,878 that's one for every 25 people. Chicago, where I live, has one for every 97 people. You're hard pressed to look in any direction and not see a new construction or condo conversion project. Or a new Washington Mutual or Fifth Third branch, for that matter. Like they said before the last depression, if you drop a quarter on the ground they'll build a First National on it.

 
At 8:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another feature we can look to disappear is the Toll Brothers quick delivery search:

http://www.quickdeliveryhomes.com/qdh_search.shtml

Since Toll Brothers does not build on Spec, I can only assume this is a listing of cancellations.

When this feature disappears, we'll all know it's curtains for the Mc Mansion market.

 
At 9:16 AM, Blogger goleta said...

Most buyers left are just speculators sitting on the edge to reflip the properties.
By hiding all the bad news, the market has a chance to lure the last bunch of suckers in.
Flippers will all lose money and the weakest will go BK first, while others will try to hold the price as long as they can until it's evident that the market is dead and they can no longer pay the mortgage and property tax, just like what happened in Sydney that that market was dead for several months until the sellers give in and prices dropped 40% in 6 months.

 
At 12:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

16074 Properties fit your search criteria: Single Family Home in Clark County or Nye County or Other County.


there are other ways to find out!

 
At 5:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I noticed the same thing that happened to that website....I was actually keeping a spreadsheet of data to see if I could gleen any direction things were moving....then kapoot, down to like 10 houses on reduced listing....my highest number tracked in the past two months for reduced listings was around 1000

 
At 8:27 PM, Anonymous Vegas1 said...

327,000 people in Las Vegas, try 1.5 million. Homes are selling in Las Vegas, rental market is tightening, and economy is going strong (not just RE and casinos). Demand is pushing prices up out here.

 
At 12:43 AM, Blogger PaulThom said...

I just clicked the link in the story and the results page is showing 1128 results for "properties that have had a price reduction in the last 7 days". So I guess maybe you saw a glitch, and things today are 30% worse today than they were when you posted the story.

 

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