Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Home Building Surges

The home builders started a bunch more homes in April. "Construction of new U.S. houses rose 11% in April to a seasonally adjusted 2.04 million annualized units. This follows a 17.6% drop in starts in March to 1.84 million units, which economists attributed to cold and wet weather."

The Census Bureau report reveals much more in the pipeline. In Table 2, under 'New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized, but Not Started, at End of Period', there are 40,000 more units under this catagory in April 2005, compared to the 183,000 in April 2004. That is up 22%.


At 11:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anyone know what percentage of these homes are pre-sold vs. speculative?

At 11:28 AM, Blogger deb said...

Even the pre-sold ones are really spec, because the buyer can usually walk prior to completion unless they have tightened up their contracts recently.

I know people who have deposits on homes. If it goes up, they close. If not, they walk.

I think cancellations will be the number to watch.

At 11:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Deb -- good suggestion. Any idea how to follow cancellations? Also, are not builders tightening up their selling criteria, to reduce the amount of speculation in their developments? I thought I read very recently that some or many are doing so, presumably in anticipation of the bubble-pop. It would seem decidedly in their interest to do so.

At 12:21 PM, Blogger goleta said...

Another interesting number is the homes in preforeclosure state. Those are either to be foreclosed or will be sold with lowered prices to pay back the loans.

California's foreclosures and preforeclosures

At 1:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

12:21 Goleta

Do you know, roughly/on-average, what percent of preforeclosures claw their way back off the list? In other words, what percentage of those actually get sold at, presumably, low-ish prices? Thanks.


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