Thursday, May 05, 2005

Gallup Poll Finds: "What's A Bubble?"

A Gallup poll finds some confusion among consumers regarding housing and interest rates. "Our latest survey showed that few consumers are aware of a possible housing bubble. This is troubling because if there is a housing bubble some consumers with mortgages could end up upside down, meaning they will owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth."

"Only about a quarter of all consumers have heard of a potential 'housing bubble'. However, when told that a housing bubble is when the prices of houses have increased so quickly and gone so high that it's like a bubble that could burst and suddenly there could be a big drop in the price of houses, about four in ten consumers say it is either very or somewhat likely that such a situation could occur in their area within the next three years."

Maybe this guy is right. "I can now safely say that the TOP in the consumer housing market is here. 1) Donald Trump was just paid $1 million to give a 45-minute talk on getting rich in real estate to 40,000 drooling wannabe millionaires at The Learning Annex. 2) Every non-business newspaper I read this week (The Washington Post, L.A. Times and San Francisco Chronicle) had at least TWO FULL-PAGE ads for seminars claiming to be able to teach me how to make $50,000 in just 90 days in residential real estate. 3) I read this Andrew Carnegie quote five times this week: “90% of all millionaires made it through real estate.” (The fact that Carnegie said this so long ago that buggy whips were a growth industry shouldn't be forgotten.)"

10 Comments:

At 8:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

holy smokes..

i guess the reason bubbles happen time and time again is that the vast majority of the population are SIMPLY ASLEEP AND/OR RETARDED.

maybe greenspan was right when he said it is impossible to tell that you are in a bubble until after it pops. he means that "it is impossible for the vast majority of STUPID PEOPLE, WHO ARE THEMSELVES THE VAST MAJORITY OF ALL PEOPLE"
"Only five percent of consumers expect housing prices to decline in the
next year, while 70 percent expect them to increase, and another 24 percent
expect them to remain steady."

and

"Only about a quarter of all consumers have heard of a potential 'housing
bubble,' with 65 percent saying they have heard nothing about it, and another
12 percent saying "only a little."

 
At 8:50 AM, Anonymous Jim in Venice said...

"the vast majority of the population are SIMPLY ASLEEP AND/OR RETARDED."

"it is impossible for the vast majority of STUPID PEOPLE, WHO ARE THEMSELVES THE VAST MAJORITY OF ALL PEOPLE"

Haha! Well said. My thoughts exactly.

 
At 8:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like deb's comment from yesterday. 7% YOY appreciation (the figures that are now coming out in CA) isn't exactly what these speculators had in mind. Soon, the "hot" money will be moving to a different playground. What this will be, I have no idea.

 
At 9:13 AM, Blogger Melody said...

http://www.bullnotbull.com/bull/Article55.html

Great read.

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger John Law said...

Mr. Market got out of stocks, he wants to buy your house!

 
At 9:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is a must read.

It points out a phenom that "The Big Kahuna" falls for in his insistence that "yeah, there's a bubble - here's all the reasons - but *my* real estate is different ('cause they aren't making land-near-golf-courses anymore)". It's like mass hysteria - according to this article, most business owners believe there is a bubble, and yet a substantial number of them feel real estate is where to make money.

I suspect some of the commercial RE activity were seeing is very much a transition from 'strong hands' to 'weak hands', too.

 
At 10:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"but *my* real estate is different ('cause they aren't making land-near-golf-courses anymore)"."

I heard that gold courses usually use some chemicals that may do some long-term damage to the body to keep the grass in desirable condition.

Golfers who spend 10 hours a week on a course might be safe, but living next to a golf course means you're exposed over 70 hours a week for the years you live in the house.

 
At 11:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's another anecdotal example of the "Housing Mania" in Southern California. I went in to a Barns & Noble 2 days ago to purchase Irrational Exuberance 2nd edition. The entire "Business & Financial" section was littered with Real Estate get rich quick books. Must have been 15- 20 titles prominently
Displayed. Books like "Rich Dad Poor Dad", "Investing In Real Estate" etc. Shillers book was buried on its side around the corner. Took me a while to even find it. Just like Trump preaching to 40,000 real estate gamblers errr...investors. This must be the sign of the end.

OC Pete

 
At 1:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard that golf courses usually use some chemicals that may do some long-term damage to the body to keep the grass in desirable condition.

If you care about your health, you shouldn't even consider living next to a golf course, or - maybe worse - on the development site of a former orchard. Bad, nasty stuff builds up in the soil and water from years and years of chemicals. Fertilizers, weed killers, pesticides, all manner of awful, toxic stuff.

 
At 4:05 PM, Anonymous BoyInTheBubble said...

I heard that golf courses usually use some chemicals that may do some long-term damage to the body to keep the grass in desirable condition.

Google "daconil". That might be what you're thinking of. I had terrible allergic reactions to it as a kid. I played golf one morning and my face got all puffy for like a month.

 

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