Friday, May 06, 2005

Foreclosures Grow In Florida, Dallas/Ft. Worth

A study on foreclosures has some surprising data on Florida. "For the second month in a row, Florida had the highest rate of foreclosures, more than two and a half times the national average. Nearly 17 percent of all March foreclosures took place in Florida. There was one foreclosure for every 692 Floridian households."

Bad news for the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area as well. "In Texas, more than one third of March foreclosures took place in just two counties: Dallas, with 18 percent, and Tarrant (Ft. Worth), with 15.3 percent. In each of these counties, the foreclosure rate was more than three and one-half times the national average and over one and one-half times the average in Texas."

"'Our March data includes approximately 62,422 new properties in some stage of foreclosure – a 17 percent increase from February,' said Jim Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac."

11 Comments:

At 3:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Didn't this happen in the last real estate boom and bust in the early 90's? Texas was one of the first states to post high foreclosures, then California followed thereafter. I vaguely remember reading articles about how this cycle would follow the same trend.

 
At 3:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm in Florida and have an offer in on a trade-up condo. I wonder what constitutes the primary price range and type of housing (SFR, condo, etc.) in this upward blip. Does anyone know?

 
At 4:13 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

3:29 Anon,
The company is a subscription service so you have to pay for the details; sorry.

 
At 7:28 PM, Blogger Sunny said...

Most county clerks are online these days. In FL, go to your county clerk's website and they should have the new foreclosure filings. You will have to do some digging, but it is in there.

I wonder if the numbers include timeshare and HOA foreclosures because there are always a ton of them here in FL. Who cares about timeshares; HOA filings almost always get resolved before sale. Good hard foreclosure data is valuable indeed.

 
At 9:05 PM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

Sunny I just did that for several counties in Florida that I thought were representative of the state such as Broward and Volusia. That article is way off as new foreclosure filings are still way down in Florida, the markets are very tight and everybody and their brother is chasing motivated sellers here. Texas and much of flyover country is a different story.


I like to track San Diego County, CA too, which is trending upward already for several years but still way under the early 1990's figures. My guess it eventually tops out at 3k+ per quarter for at least a couple of years.
1st qtr 2005 1758
1st qtr 2004 1372
1st qtr 2003 1482
1st qtr 2002 1064
1st qtr 2001 947
1st qtr 2000 965



http://www.netronline.com/public_records.htm

 
At 10:12 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

Sunny,
Excellent tip about foreclosure data. Thanks.

 
At 10:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last month I signed up with Realty Trac and canceled within a few days because I found their info to be inaccurate.

 
At 6:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

4:13 Ben -- thanks, re the lists being by subscription. Unfortunately, I have yet to meet anyone who raves about having one that is reliable enough to be worth the cost. Like another poster, I am leery of early claims that foreclosures are way up on regular residences in Florida. While I agree that in several areas there are way too many investor-owned properties to avoid high-foreclosure-rate risk in a bubble burst, for now the flippers seem to be standing fast. The rough part is figuring out how many speculators/investors own in any given new condo. Older units tend not to be a problem, at least outside of South Florida, but new ones seem to be snapped up almost 100% by speculators when brand-new, then gradually re-sold. If 15% of the units in a building are in the MLS, I wonder how many more are owned by speculators waiting for a thinner inventory before offering for sale. Yuk.

 
At 7:15 AM, Anonymous John Vosilla said...

"The rough part is figuring out how many speculators/investors own in any given new condo. Older units tend not to be a problem, at least outside of South Florida, but new ones seem to be snapped up almost 100% by speculators when brand-new, then gradually re-sold. If 15% of the units in a building are in the MLS, I wonder how many more are owned by speculators waiting for a thinner inventory before offering for sale. Yuk."


That is a great question. Some things you can do to check on one of those new very expensive condo towers is see how many actually have their lights on around 9pm on a weekday night, how many have chairs, tables or hanging plants on the patio during the day (works best on mid-rise buildings), how many are for rent on realtor.com and check the address of the owners on the tax rolls to see if it matches the address of the property.

 
At 7:41 AM, Blogger deb said...

Tobin Smith was on Fox this morning saying that the RE spec boom has bust. He was posing with an full page newspeper ad to "Make a Gazillion Dollars in RE" (or the like). I forget the other commentators name, but he said he knew the top was in because at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting all the questions were about RE. A panel of 4, I think. NO ONE DISAGREED.

6 months ago if they talked about a bubble, it was "is there one?" and at least half the panelists would be pro-RE investment.

Oh, how the tune is changing. I am actually surprised.

 
At 8:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

7:15 AM
"... Some things you can do to check on one of those new very expensive condo towers is see how many actually have their lights on around 9pm on a weekday night, how many have chairs, tables or hanging plants on the patio during the day (works best on mid-rise buildings), how many are for rent on realtor.com and check the address of the owners on the tax rolls to see if it matches the address of the property."

John -- great ideas - thanks. While a noticeable number of owners in these buildings will be snowbirds, I suppose we should assume the majority of those are stable enough financially that they will not want to dump their winter homes in a downturn. In many snowbird condo units, the lights will not be on, nor furniture out, during the May-Sept season. Re the tax records, then, it seeems I'd be looking for local owners who have a different address than the condo itself.

 

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