Thursday, April 14, 2005

Top PMI Firm: 5%+ Delinquency Is No Big Deal

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) is a provider of private mortgage insurance in the US and elsewhere. In this newswire report some numbers jump out. "Including bulk loans, the percentage of loans that were delinquent at March 31, 2005 was 5.71 percent, compared to 6.05 percent at December 31, 2004, and 5.34 percent at March 31, 2004."

"MGIC, the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corporation, is the nation's leading provider of private mortgage insurance coverage with $172.1 billion primary insurance inforce covering 1.37 million mortgages as of March 31, 2005. MGIC serves 5,000 lenders with locations across the country and in Puerto Rico."


At 11:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing market about to crash ?

This is a free link until 9PM tonight.

I have no association with this website other than to be a reader of it.

At 11:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


The new Dataquick numbers are out.

Here is the link:

La. has gone up 17.3% since last year, but only 5.2% since June 2004.

I believe the fed will raise rates 25 basis points at both their May 2nd meeting and their June 29 meeting.

These rates will have some affect on mortgage rates and, I believe, will keep home prices stagnant, at least.

By June 2005 (which will be reported on in July 2005) I believe the year over year will show a 0%-2% increase in home prices. This will prompt an egress of speculators and so-called "investors." Their absence will change the market profoundly here (since 33% of homes in LA were bought by investors in 2004) and once ARMS kick in the end is at hand.


At 12:03 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

Thanks CashKing, reading it now.

At 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Meanwhile data from the Federal Housing Finance Board showed a residential real estate market apparently in a massive, probably final, blowoff phase as of February. What the chart does not show is the reduction in volume that first accompanies rising rates. As rates rise, first transaction volume declines. Then if the rate rise continues, the market begins to recognize that with falling prices. Sellers are usually the last to get the news. Prices may appear to stay high, or even go higher months after the bubble actually ends, but the truth is that fewer sellers can get their price. By the time the point of recognition arrives, it is too late."

At 12:22 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

First anon,
That WSE link is a great read. Thanks.

At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks, Ben.

The whole housing bubble is related to liquidity. As soon as liquidity dries up, the bubble will burst. It is that simple.

Given foreign investors' increasing uneasiness with the US deficits and consumers running out of debt capacity, the end can't be far off.

At 3:08 PM, Blogger Sunny said...

Re the second anon post, the flow of real estate market information is interesting to observe. Sellers and buyers (the decision makers) as whole groups are usually the last to catch on. I remember wondering how many articles I had to read on the excellent real estate market back in 2001 before it would actually catch on en masse. Oh boy, did it catch!


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