Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Mortgage Applications Down

The weekly mortgage numbers from MBA are out. "The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was down 4.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier."

"With a 9.8 percent increase in applications, refinance activity is at its highest level since March 11, however, refinance applications volume is down 14.6 percent from one year ago."

8 Comments:

At 7:18 AM, Blogger Sunny said...

"With a 9.8 percent increase in applications, refinance activity is at its highest level since March 11, however, refinance applications volume is down 14.6 percent from one year ago."

9.8% increase apps, but a 14.6% decrease in apps. Huh? What is the difference?

 
At 7:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can never quite understand this data. No mater what the numbers are, they manage to make it sound great.

 
At 7:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The 9.8% is a recent increase but compared to last year at this time it is down 14.6.

 
At 7:59 AM, Blogger Ben Jones said...

I know. The MBA gives me a headache. But I have been following the unadjusted y-o-y numbers for a while now, and apps are way down.

 
At 8:35 AM, Blogger deb said...

Ben,

Can you post some of the info you have tracked, so that we can get a sense of the trend? It is impossible to follow it the way the MBA releases the data.

Thanks

 
At 8:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MBA... just like the NAR... spin and more spin... new changes in methodology... new comparisons... different comparisons... it's all the same bs... one day, though people will wake up... and they will realize that they got taken to cleaners by the entire industry... and the only thing that they have left is a big, fat mortgage payment that's going in size on a monthly basis as well as overall...

 
At 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great Blog Ben - keep up the good work.

As for the MBA #s: even though the entire # is down y-o-y, the purchase portion continues to be strong - with a decent increase y-o-y. Much of the decrease has been in the refis - which is to be expected.

Like you, I feel we are in a housing bubble - especially on the costs and in some other areas (Phoenix, Las Vegas). I've taken some short positions in HBs lately and, after recent #s including today's MBA, feel that I may have taken them a bit too early.

Bubbles could either continue to inflate, deflate slowly, or pop. It looks like we may be still in the "continue to inflate" mode. Timing when it will turn is key - I wish I could!

 
At 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

just like what happened in the late 80s... a flat yield curve is going to pop this bubble... it's not going to be a rising long term interest rate... but a narrow yield that will force lenders to firm up their standards...

 

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